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英語作文：Can You Predict The Future
Can You Predict The Future?
It’s impossible to know the future. We can guess, but no one has actual knowledge of what’s going to happen down the road.
But if you’re someone who trusts her feelings, you’re more likely to accurately predict future events than people who don’t trust their feelings as much.
That’s the conclusion of a recent study done by researchers at Columbia Business School.
Through a series of eight studies they found that subjects who had a high amount of trust in their feelings were generally better able to predict things like the outcomes of presidential elections, football games, the winner of American Idol, and even the weather.
How is this possible, you ask?
The best explanation is known as the “privileged window” hypothesis. The gist is that when we rely on feelings to make a prediction, we’re really summarizing and calling on everything we know about the subject in question. It’s similar to what journalist Malcolm Gladwell wrote about in his best selling book “Blink” that the more we know about something the greater our ability to make snap judgments and predictions without thinking too much.
Unlike Gladwell’s theory, though, the recent study is less about snap decisions and more about consciously deciding to rely on feelings to make predictions. Do that, and you’re more likely to be able to sense what may happen in the future.
未來不可預知。我們可以猜測，但是沒人能夠真正知道未來將發生什么。
但是如果你相信自己的感覺，你將比那些不相信自己感覺的人更可能準確預測出未來。
上述結論是哥倫比亞商學院研究人員最近的研究結果。
通過一系列8項研究，研究人員發現那些對自己的感受有著極高信任度的個體，大部分都能更好預測出總統選舉、足球比賽、美國偶像的獲勝者，甚至是天氣情況。
你會問了，這怎么可能？
最好解釋莫過于“幸運之窗”假說。其中要點就是當我們依賴我們的感覺作出預測時，我們事實上在總結和回想我們所知道的，關于問題的一切信息。這與記者Malcolm Gladwell在他的暢銷書《眨眼之間》中的觀點不謀而合，Malcolm Gladwell寫到：我們對某事的了解越多，就越可能迅速判斷，不假思索地作出預測。
但是，與Malcolm Gladwell的理論所不同的是，這項研究對于迅速決策涉及較少，更多的是關于依靠感覺，有意識地作出預測。憑感覺預測吧，你將更可能知曉未來。
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