英語美文欣賞:轉學去劍橋

　　Dear Economist,

　　I am in doubt whether it is worth changing school for my last year of A-levels. I would be living in a much better place (Cambridge, whereas I am now in Dover) and getting more tuition. I am likely to have better accommodation, more freedom and will meet people with diverse interests. But is it worth the risk of not getting into university or getting lower grades on my A-levels?

　　Please help me to solve this dilemma.

　　GP, Dover

　　Dear GP,

　　Let us run through this supposed dilemma again. You are considering a move to a place that appears to be better in every dimension, including the academic one. Yet you are hesitant because of a perceived risk.

　　I am tempted to recommend you consult a shrink rather than an economist. Fortunately, so-called behavioural economists combine the best qualities of economist and psychologist. And any behavioural economist would quickly diagnose that you are a victim of the “endowment effect”.

　　The endowment effect is an irrational preference to keep what you have rather than switch. Better the devil you know and all that.

　　A typical experiment designed to reveal the effect would give participants a small gift for participating in the experiment. Later, the participants would be invited to swap the gift for an alternative. No matter what the original gift was, or what the alternative is, people, irrationally, are reluctant to make the swap.

　　Your attachment to substandard lodgings and scant tuition in Dover is clearly irrational. Move to Cambridge at once. You may be wrong, of course, but a risk of error is no excuse for inaction.

　　親愛的經濟學家：

　　我不知道在我A-levels課程的最后一年轉校是否值得。我會到一個更好的地方生活(劍橋，我現在是在多佛)，得到更高的獎學金。我可能會擁有更好的住宿條件、更自由的空間，并將遇到興趣各不相同的人。但是，這值得我冒考不上大學或在A-levels課程中獲得較低分數的風險嗎?請幫我解決這個兩難選擇吧。

　　GP，多佛

　　親愛的GP：

　　讓我們重新梳理一下這個假設的兩難困境。你正在考慮遷去一個似乎在各個方面(包括學術方面)都更好的地方。然而，由于你意識到存在某種風險，你猶豫了。

　　我很想建議你去向心理醫師咨詢，而不是經濟學家。幸運的是，所謂的行為經濟學家將經濟學家和心理學家最優秀的品質結合起來了。任何行為經濟學家都能迅速診斷出，你是一個“稟賦效應”(endowment effect)的受害者。

　　“稟賦效應”是一種非理性偏好，即珍惜你擁有的東西，而不是去改變它。選擇你熟悉的東西。

　　為揭示這種效應，專家設計了一個典型實驗，給參加這個實驗的參與者一份小禮物。然后，邀請參與者去交換禮物。無論原來的禮物是什么，或者交換的禮物是什么，人們總是非理性地不愿意交換禮物。

　　你留戀多佛低于標準的住宿條件和不足的獎學金，這明顯是非理性的。趕快去劍橋吧。當然，你可能會犯錯，但犯錯的風險不是不行動的借口。

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